For Easy E-Mail

Should I set an address up here at my domain?  If anyone cares they shall let me know; my intuition informs me.  I may do so anyhow.

March 30, 2015 at 1:18 am Leave a comment

Steely Dan ‘Do It Again’

And the Vietnam War oh God the Vietnam War going to home on Chuo Hill to that say five thousand dollar stereo and playing that, playing The Wall, playing…other appropriate things…and

going back on watch

keeping their secrets, keeping all their fucking secrets, and…simply, quietly, secretly

Doing IT AGAIN.

No, that is not a poem, merely the remembrance of endless pain and I started as a teenager at that.  Do It Again, indeed.  Indeed.

March 27, 2015 at 9:55 pm Leave a comment

Investing and…EMOTIONAL VULNERABILITY

One of the things no one will warn you about if you start investing is that investing is a very emotional business, at least on the whole.  Essentially, the world is coming to an end each and every day (Armageddon), the new savior has just appeared (whether in person or as a company), the technology to save the world has just appeared and if you’ll just give $X why YOU WILL SAVE IT (and make yourself millions instantly), the technology to save the world is being misused and it will destroy the world [unfortunately entirely possible, as are the scenarios mentioned] and everyone is missing the point.  At the same time, the successful investors will tell you to forget the bullshit and and concentrate on material things.

1.  The stock market will crash.  It has never yet been successfully predicted by most of the stock market (on any stock market scenario in any country at any time we know of).  Of course, if it had been, it probably wouldn’t have been a crash.

2.  There are a number of absolutely indisputable causes for stock market crashes.  Unfortunately, many of them contradict each other, which means that some are inevitably correct.  Probably.  The true Murphy’s Law is this (and only this); “The universe is infinite, at least from the perspective of humans.  Humans aren’t and their plans aren’t.  There are an infinite number of things that can happen in any event line of any kind.  Any human plan is finite.  This means that utterly unforeseen things will occur and the people involved in them will have no idea of how to react” except to use the most famous tactic; blame it on the enemy.  If there isn’t an enemy, invent one.

3.  This is a nuclear age.  See (2) above.  Nuclear war will almost certainly occur on some scale.  The College has it at 3 minutes til midnight last I heard; I had it at 15 seconds but Putin backed off slightly and I’ll give you 45 seconds.  I am privy to information the College doesn’t have; I extrapolated very correctly beginning 45 years ago.

4.  The stock market is going to make you a millionaire!  See OICAX and BRK.B; funds do better.  The problem is that in the short term becoming a millionaire (even in years) you have more probability buying lottery tickets, playing cards and doing the gaming tables.  At least you’ll most likely have more fun.  The one word that I’ve never yet seen in an advertisement but know as essential is “patience”.  [I will say that IBD does at least indicate it and positively state you’ll have losses; so does Tison’s candlestick analysis at the start, although latterly he seems to emphasize some magical quality.  [Sorry, I don’t believe in that kind of magic.]

5.  The stock market is ONLY [stick in phrase, sentence, quality, whatever].  It isn’t.  It’s just as many things as there are people involved, and methods of success vary because for one thing the worth of stocks is lingually based, and part of a much more complicated sociopsychological system than anyone has cared or dared to try to study, partially because of the misstatements of behaviorism (humanism is equally offbase).

6.  In general, the WORLD IS COMING TO AN END.  No, the Vogons haven’t decided to make a highway through here yet.  And once again, it’s very unlikely that such an eventuality would be foreseen particularly since it would most likely be a collision between our planet as a gravity well and something we’ve hopelessly attracted (sort of a case of cosmic love, you see).

7.  And at the end and on a serious note…read a lot, study a lot, try to cut your losses as you see fit and with advice and you’ll probably profit some.  Perhaps you’ll profit a lot.  I have the majority of my investments in two rather large funds and do some speculating on the side, all of which is currently cut short except one company (I’ll venture into another one soon, maybe even today).  I did find out instantly that having my pride involved in my choices was the worst possible idea.

March 18, 2015 at 2:50 pm Leave a comment

Taking a Day off From the Internet (Internet Unawareness Day)

For me, the ‘Internet’ started about 1980, in the days of DOS (not MS-DOS).  The idea of taking a day off has always come easy except for that hellish time when I was a leader of a virtual faction, castle and all (RoM and figure out the correct terms yourself; it was a useful study of virtual reality as it existed and of peoples’ behavior based on virtual appearance and a need to be known).

It was hard to take a day off because I was ‘born’ with a sense of duty.  Only while I was Guild Leader.

I haven’t even read the news, I’m not sure how my stocks are doing, the world seems to continue.  Have a nice day.

March 11, 2015 at 11:59 pm Leave a comment

Approaching Singularity

Note that neither Vinge nor Zelazny quite described the event itself; however, most of the components are now visible.  The singularity itself is indexing of knowledge (both faith- and experience-based), as well as the various hypotheses surrounding meaning, value and the like.

Science is a kind of faith; it can easily be described as a religion.  There are certain prescribed routes one must follow to be a scientist—otherwise one will be relegated mercilessly to the world of the Amateur Scientist.  Generally these are ranked in with the Wikipedia Believers.  An internet event has some possible connection to external reality (I’m using an absolute word to describe an entirely relative phenomenon, excuse me, it’s for brevity) if and only if it is reported by  several sources which are unrelated to each other (which pretty well rules out newspapers; at least in the 90s almost all newspapers were owned by the Chicago Tribune), preferably with foreign and domestic sources, if it is reported in relatively good English–if there is any video NEVER install a video player to see it, BTW–and if it more or less fits in with the fabric of events.  Unfortunately, yellow journalism actually tends to be first source for the consumers; the question is once again what is ‘real’ and what is not.  Science requires its practitioners to perform various rituals on the way to becoming recognized scientists.  Preferably they provide their teachers with at least one good idea they can use.  Unless they are dutiful and follow and established way of thought, they generally become ostracized to the World of the Amateur Scientist.  If they’re fortunate enough not to do so, by following the rules, they immediately forget how to do anything like chop wood much less cut firewood or dig a ditch, if they ever knew it.  However, they are much more aware of the real world than the working man; it’s in fact self-evident.  This very occasionally causes a problem with those who are obviously fit for the Way but can’t manage for some reason to fit in, and the only solution is of course, The Way of The Amateur Scientist, hereafter referred to as WAS.  [If there is a hereafter.  The problem described is real, though.  Experimentation isn’t verification in an empirical schema.  Hypothesis, theory, endit.  Sorry, folks.  When you can’t prove causation all is irretrievably lost.

So the ‘facts’ identified through the Singularity can’t solely come from the scientists, who are safe in their cubbyholes protecting the Stability of the Society, as do the courts, law enforcement, and armed forces.  The Singularity occurs (rather, begins) when indexing of information and direct interfacing with computers meet, which means among other things mobile virtual space and storage, not connected to the Internet.  You simply don’t lay yourself open to viruses.  Although some will.  There are indications that this will occur when actual Artificial Intelligence occurs in identifiable form.

We are approaching Singularity, I believe.

March 11, 2015 at 4:41 pm Leave a comment

The Questionable Practice of Stop Light Cameras

Do the Red Light Cameras Draining Your Wallet Make Roads Less Safe?
The horrible measurement of those unjust traffic fines is of…
1) Lack of awareness of the driving environment, which is fundamentally dangerous
2) Protest can only be prompted by willed ignorance of the law and/or a demand to be treated as a special case
3) Either unawareness of the time it takes to stop or ignoring it.
Yeah, ten seconds to stop from sixty and you’re just doing 25 and what about that guy behind you…  We all tailgate, many especially with semi’s (and the hopeful excuse that you just couldn’t see the red light–so what–you were following too closely for the situation).  Yes, there are people who speed up to at least twice the limit.  Frankly, I tend to drive my   Suburban rather than the blindingly fast little Saturn that is less than half its weight.  It’s just that I drove a lot of the time over a hundred miles an hour when I got out of the Navy and my unhappy little niche in it and although I’m being very, very careful to stay under that what I loved was the corners, not the high speed.  Anyone can press a peddle down.  That’s not bragging, it’s that it gets to me too and I’m fortunate enough to have a refuge when idiots newly come from California are being daring on 25 mile an hour roads, making asses of themselves, and making it dangerous for everyone.  They are fun on country corners.  These are the same people that have all the stop lights with the cameras.  If they see a deer their first instinct is not to stop; if anything they speed up, maybe swerving a bit.  Miniature SUVs are kind of like miniature bulldogs; they don’t take a really big hit.  Like a little deer.  Physics doesn’t work that way.  You can’t take all your corners the racetrack way, because it’s flagrantly illegal and it ticks everyone off, even the police up here.
Assume that a yellow light means “stop”.  If you think I’m crazy, read the little book.  It’s telling you the light will change.  And it basically functions as a stop light, because in practice if for any reason at all you are in an intersection when the light flashes to red–you are breaking the law.
Good grief.  QQ (which is gamertalk; s’posed to look like 2 eyeballs w/tears)

March 7, 2015 at 10:53 pm Leave a comment

About China

http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-coming-chinese-crack-up-1425659198?mod=WSJ_hp_RightTopStories

n reply.  First of all, read the writings of Chairman Mao in some form.  Secondly, have some passing acquaintance with Chinese (and Far East) history.  Cruelty and oppression are the first classical tools of authority.  China as it is represents a huge victory for the capitalist world and a few thinkers who saw oil as a proper inducement for it to join.

That worked because it first of all gave China (extremely good grade) oil that it could use in trade factors.  Trade factors are things like permits where little or no investment is required on the part of those selling them.  Any factor of a trade is acquisition or production, and generally not all components of any given thing are produced at one plant, from flour and preservatives to paint and every part.  Trade factors can obviously be held within the company or purchased from outside (hopefully most permits are purchased, for instance).

The question during the Vietnam era was how a self-sufficient land could be induced to join the ‘civilized’ world.  Someone on my ship in my division near my age made a number of points.  One was cribbed from RAND and experience; Hong Kong was the chief licit source of mainland Chinese goods.  The Forbidden City (which had become in the 1900s in Hong Kong merely the circle of the less fortunate ringing the houses of the rich–and the other side of the street from the sailor’s bars.  Had that been me, and if I’d had a very high security clearance, I would have been warned very thoroughly about not crossing the street and entering those dark and crooked alleys, and that people who asked what I did were very much not my friends.  If I’d been there, of course.

That would mean that there was a major problem in transportation of “goods of value”.  That includes money.  Any time that you have a great deal of traffic converging on a point there is an implicit problem, especially since the trade was formally illegal and desperately needed through the early 80s.  In the early days the ones who didn’t make provisions were eventually going to be executed; it was already an established procedure to make a set amount of money and have it within reach and leave the land with no thought of return.  The day that Vietnam actually fell you could have seen the Vietnamese rich men with their bags of heroin coming on to U.S. ships for the first part of their prearranged journey that was an escape.  Oddly enough, I think it was Hong Kong, since nowhere else in the Far East would have been safe for them.  It was odd to see huge plastic bags of Hong Kong White, 2 kilos and up.  At the time, cut ten times, I heard that a gram cost about $500.  If it wasn’t cut, it killed.  It was called Hong Kong white because…it was generally refined there.  Or so I heard; I really don’t know.  I’ve heard too that some of the Thais had the equipment to do their own themselves.  Another point to this is that it probably wouldn’t have been a terribly good idea to set up drug operations in China, for some odd reason.  [Don’t ask.]

The West never imagined the Chinese thought first and foremost that we were simply crazy.  Chiang’s government was the most corrupt in history (supposedly) and then we came along and set up a succession of puppet governments in South Vietnam.  No, that wasn’t the way it was supposed to work.  Supposedly.  However, Ho Chi Minh came to the United States first seeking for aid (the U.S. was seeking a war in the Far East), we turned him down and Russia gleefully accepted.  We didn’t know what to do if we ‘won’ that war, incidentally.

Given that the Vietnam conflict was over the oil in the Gulf of Tonkin pretty well went to China, for then.  Remember, that was 40 years ago and the Chinese were the friends.  That meant that a whole world slowly opened for the Chinese.  That also meant (something we’ve been steadily missing) that they had to become steadily become more paranoid about our capabilities and more than that about capabilities that the government hid from everyone.  Better than that, it was known we had subverted Mao’s best friend (who mainly became convinced Mao had lost it, supposedly; there could be more to it) and we had a habit of dumping on our allies.  Dumping on?  Failing to carry through on promises especially to regimes we’d invented in the first place.  One of our favorite tricks at least until recently is to use U.S. aid agencies to come up with information that can be used against the local government for a future war.  After all, Vietnam was started to keep the troops combat-ready.  Remember most of this stuff can be easily verified.  Guess why a lot of nations won’t allow the Red Cross in.

The difference between communism and capitalism is in the perspective of value employed and the theoretical representative system employed.  Said theoretical systems don’t come close to matching the ones which are employed, in large part because there would have to be a means of accounting for the distortion induced by representing a curved system as a plane.

Photoshopping” is a very visible employment of the concept, and it in fact has a great deal to do with the way that we perceive (the mental tool that we use for the construction and employment of protocols, that is).  There is a great deal of Photoshopping in this article and as such it’s a nice representation of current thought about China.

March 7, 2015 at 5:13 pm Leave a comment

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