Rising Oil Usage and Impact

June 19, 2008 at 12:33 pm Leave a comment

A great deal of what is currently occurring was foreseen in the early 1970s.  Like many other things, I’ve never understood the term “third world” but then I suppose I’m a skeptic.  Anyway, those guys–the ones who really were supposed to be well-behaved and subservient–were going to assume a leading role in world politics.  As I recall the statement, any dominance based solely on natural resources would be short-lived and non-recurrent.  If one were a true skeptic, one would say that anyone brave enough to twist the screw a bit too much would suffer military incursion.

The easiest means of verification of this is resource to public resources; to wit, John Brunner.  Total Eclipse, Stand on Zanzibar, and The Sheep Look Up are the ones that come immediately to mind.  Military and governmental analyses matched most of his, although he expected things to happen a bit more rapidly than they have.  Tidbits have been released by the RAND institute.

The point has about been reached where oil production will always be an increasingly smaller fraction of what’s needed.  Production can’t match usage, and the market is expotentially increasing.  I believe that from here it’s powers of three, each year.  Concern about social stability is what has to drive governments, just as it drove and drives religions.  Given that a proper protocol is not supplied, experimentation is the only possible alternative.

What that means in clear speech is that when things like food, shelter, clothing and other basic necessities run short there are riots and there are dead.  And some of the dead are a result of protection of stability.  Name-calling won’t save this one.

The timeline after opening closed areas to exploration and drilling was an absolute maximum of ten years until social breakdown, with the only apparent possibility of escape actual social networking via the computer (and not the drivel a lot of us are spouting now in the process of experimentation.  The latest possible survival of current forms of civilization/society was put at around 2050.  Interesting.  I wonder if we’ll manage to get together and actually organize the knowledge that is there.

interesting times, I meant.  Interesting, indeed.

–Glenn

Entry filed under: current news, science fiction, writing and thought. Tags: , , .

…exploding thong Free Software: Greenprint World 1.1

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