Investing and…EMOTIONAL VULNERABILITY

March 18, 2015 at 2:50 pm Leave a comment

One of the things no one will warn you about if you start investing is that investing is a very emotional business, at least on the whole.  Essentially, the world is coming to an end each and every day (Armageddon), the new savior has just appeared (whether in person or as a company), the technology to save the world has just appeared and if you’ll just give $X why YOU WILL SAVE IT (and make yourself millions instantly), the technology to save the world is being misused and it will destroy the world [unfortunately entirely possible, as are the scenarios mentioned] and everyone is missing the point.  At the same time, the successful investors will tell you to forget the bullshit and and concentrate on material things.

1.  The stock market will crash.  It has never yet been successfully predicted by most of the stock market (on any stock market scenario in any country at any time we know of).  Of course, if it had been, it probably wouldn’t have been a crash.

2.  There are a number of absolutely indisputable causes for stock market crashes.  Unfortunately, many of them contradict each other, which means that some are inevitably correct.  Probably.  The true Murphy’s Law is this (and only this); “The universe is infinite, at least from the perspective of humans.  Humans aren’t and their plans aren’t.  There are an infinite number of things that can happen in any event line of any kind.  Any human plan is finite.  This means that utterly unforeseen things will occur and the people involved in them will have no idea of how to react” except to use the most famous tactic; blame it on the enemy.  If there isn’t an enemy, invent one.

3.  This is a nuclear age.  See (2) above.  Nuclear war will almost certainly occur on some scale.  The College has it at 3 minutes til midnight last I heard; I had it at 15 seconds but Putin backed off slightly and I’ll give you 45 seconds.  I am privy to information the College doesn’t have; I extrapolated very correctly beginning 45 years ago.

4.  The stock market is going to make you a millionaire!  See OICAX and BRK.B; funds do better.  The problem is that in the short term becoming a millionaire (even in years) you have more probability buying lottery tickets, playing cards and doing the gaming tables.  At least you’ll most likely have more fun.  The one word that I’ve never yet seen in an advertisement but know as essential is “patience”.  [I will say that IBD does at least indicate it and positively state you’ll have losses; so does Tison’s candlestick analysis at the start, although latterly he seems to emphasize some magical quality.  [Sorry, I don’t believe in that kind of magic.]

5.  The stock market is ONLY [stick in phrase, sentence, quality, whatever].  It isn’t.  It’s just as many things as there are people involved, and methods of success vary because for one thing the worth of stocks is lingually based, and part of a much more complicated sociopsychological system than anyone has cared or dared to try to study, partially because of the misstatements of behaviorism (humanism is equally offbase).

6.  In general, the WORLD IS COMING TO AN END.  No, the Vogons haven’t decided to make a highway through here yet.  And once again, it’s very unlikely that such an eventuality would be foreseen particularly since it would most likely be a collision between our planet as a gravity well and something we’ve hopelessly attracted (sort of a case of cosmic love, you see).

7.  And at the end and on a serious note…read a lot, study a lot, try to cut your losses as you see fit and with advice and you’ll probably profit some.  Perhaps you’ll profit a lot.  I have the majority of my investments in two rather large funds and do some speculating on the side, all of which is currently cut short except one company (I’ll venture into another one soon, maybe even today).  I did find out instantly that having my pride involved in my choices was the worst possible idea.

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