Posts tagged ‘economy’

Artificial Intelligence and Its Threat

Its first blurry visions came in an age where computers existed by virtue of vacuum tubes.  Responses as I recall them were in terms of long seconds (long as in it might be more than one).

Observe that the primary threat has taken place and is enlarging.  As is, a person’s value is in terms of property, ‘real’ and social–money, stature (as in titles so you don’t have to work), wages, position on various social ladders especially as defined by work…and all of this except the money and stature are immediately threatened.  They were trying out replacing highly-paid surgeons with machines at John Hopkins about a decade ago.  There are robot workers on cars.  I’m not great at endless lists, so…

This means there is an increasingly large number of people whose identity is being displaced.  There almost has to be a growing population of actually unemployed who are actually sliding down that hopeless ladder I mentioned.  The stature that was job-acquired is gone.  I read an article last year that addressed the fact that someone who works at MacDonald’s lives with another wage-earner.  Does this add a perspective to people who stay in abusive relationships?  I’m not talking about palaces here.

With respect to available work there is a growing population of workers–even for jobs which don’t by themselves supply enough for survival.  I believe MacDonald’s managers do make enough to survive if they’re careful.

AI is displacing jobs and it will do so at an exponentially increasing rate.

Our society (the ‘Western’ world) doesn’t tolerate either shanty-towns or the homeless.  It frowns on communes.

Government benefits are being frowned upon by the same ones who will be frantic in a few years in the lower class–the poor–the ones who make less than $25K USD at least are poor.  It would take money now.

Final note, the historical solution to political unrest (like rioting in the streets over hunger or for that matter murder–multiplied each time it is covered) is war.  The one way we would present a real and present danger to the AIs would be if we set off a nuclear bomb or three and caused EMF events.  An electro magnetic frequency event would be the blast of multi-spectra emissions caused by such an explosion.  It would pale any voltage surge.  If it appeared that nuclear war were imminent right now, it would be very interesting to see what occurred.

What we are doing right now appears to be heading directly toward nuclear war.

September 13, 2015 at 3:06 pm Leave a comment

About Unemployment in the United States

Official unemployment figures are EXACTLY this:  those who claim unemployment benefits.

This does not include:  those who can’t fulfill the requirements (and are honest, out of fear) and therefore can’t file–more on this momentarily; those who have exited the job force because of discrimination which can’t be pursued (primarily the aged), and those who are regarded as (for a myriad of reasons) “unemployable”.

Some people can’t file because they don’t have a phone or a reliable address.  The way down can be really hard, and very few people are Lindsay Lohan (rich, with rich backing).  From my experience, people who become homeless the hard way  A large part of it seemed to be a loss of identity, by which I mean they lost their feeling of purposefulness in life, of focus and thus of self.  Oddly enough when you’re in that condition it’s much easier to get sick and much harder to recover.

You have to be ready to work at any time of day or not for any amount of hours in order to qualify for unemployment.  The scared honest ones outnumber the cheaters because the department does check, increasingly.

And if you’re fifty or older, your chances of getting hired steadily diminish.  I’m actually not sure precisely why.  My perception both working with most of the younger people in fields that required concentration and patience and having to deal with them, being the subject of their “work” so to speak, isn’t the kindest for said younger people.  However, I must say I had the same perception to a great extent when I was that age–of my peers.  I do notice a difference in that there is increasingly less literacy and much more of inability to do anything but follow.

There is also a surprising trend toward ideographic usage by means of acronyms and various ’emoticons’.

The reason I include this is that it may have an effect on hiring, since those who hire are generally a good deal younger than thirty, and they would share traits.

And the point of all this is that there is much more to the economy and what is affecting it than what is weighed in officially.  A great deal is labeled irrelevant automatically.  The endless dithering about when the Fed will start raising interest rates hinges on ‘unemployment rates’ which don’t bear an actual relationship to the amount of people employed in this country and fail to even give a nod to the ones who wish to be employed in this country but have given up; they have tried too many times to no avail.  And for every job there are a hundred applicants.  There is a widening gulf, and it is aided by a complete lack of perception.  To even attempt to label things as just and unjust when there is so much outright ignorance involved is fruitless but I must say I’m tempted.

June 16, 2015 at 7:37 pm Leave a comment

Back to “Work”

I’ve been busy on Quora, and I notice a growing interest in what I have to say.  This was lying in wait, because I realized years ago, long before the Internet existed, in the days of paper tape and UNIVAC, that most probably the thoughts that inspired my actions then would still be needed now.  I wrote a two and a half page note to the powers-that-be (ComSeventhFlt–>JCS–>upward) that was designed to prevent WWIII for the time being, then.  By doing so I influenced the economy of the world.  I knew that if it worked I would be and I knew that it was supposedly utterly impossible that I could.  I had the opportunity because of that and two other things to remain in the ranks of the powerful and to actually become known in a couple of years; I felt that it would have been at the price of my soul.  I fled that war; I fled that position of power (or illusion) and I convinced myself that I knew that there were others like me.  In fact I assured myself there were others much more intelligent who knew much more, who had already thought of that and who would precede me.  I tried to ensure that I would not be alive now, just to insure that…I would not need to act again.  I knew that my insights could not possibly be unique.

In 1992 I got a degree in psychology, and the vein of logic and observation I had used was something that current theoreticians in any applicable field was still something utterly my own.  It worked.  I used that method in high school to actually pass two tests in subjects at which I wasn’t good–without studying.  They were multiple choice tests, and I used the patterning employed by the given teachers in the given tests.  I missed one question between the two tests.  My (private) saying in high school was “Tell me two things and you tell me three” and it very much applied in the Navy–and afterward; I actually did some research in the public sector to confirm some things.  Things, let me add, that were supposedly classified Top Secret.

According to that little paper (according to Brunner’s theories, Kissinger’s theories, the theories of the military at JCS rank and their strategists (to whom they hoped to co-opt me) there was going to come a period of collapse.  Partially it would be caused by the transition of “Third World Countries” to a recognized status and realize that part of the warlike clash would be caused by the very usage of “Third World” and its negative connotations.  Part of it would be caused by the virtual disappearance of material production (factories that make cars, for instance) from countries such as ours because of labor costs and environmental concerns.  Most of all it would be caused by a massive increase in population–a necessary concentration of the mass of population in urban areas (this was achieved here as of the 1990 census, over half the population lived in cities)–and a consequent, maintained and deliberately increased demarcation between the wealthy, the ‘middle class’ and the poor.  I recognized at that time that the poor served a social function of defining privilege and presenting an intrinsic warning should one lose the societally-conferred right to exist (that is, right to food, shelter, warmth and protection from casual crime).

Who among us who isn’t homeless hasn’t seen how they are treated and whether ‘consciously’ or not decided at every level that that was a step toward hell?  And now ponder, if you are not one of them, that most of us live   paycheck to paycheck.  Many live working for consciously brutal employers, with no recourse at all (Oregon, for instance, as most, is a hire-at-will/fire-at-will state, and if fired there are no benefits).  I recognized this as a direct result and so did those who took my advice.  And the alternative, which was attractive to some, was nuclear war.  Why, it would even have taken care of the overpopulation! although they didn’t like the reminder that there would be some people waiting at the doors of the hardened bunkers those who would use the nukes had ready.

I am trying again to convince myself I’m merely mad.  That’s what my compensation is for, after all.

The unfortunate part is that the threat is in the Middle East, it does involve religion and nukes and it involves once again regrettable acts in the past.  Mind you, we were warned a millennium ago, at Tours.  Surely others will rise.  I am merely an old man, dying of Ehlers-Danlos Syndrome and anti-seizure medications.  I have begun to write again; I am pondering how to put snippets in here.  I will put a copyright reminder with each one, now.  Not for pay, but so I will  receive attribution.  Having spent 50 years mapping out a new sort of social theory, I need to have it available in a structured format…which means, precisely in line with the theory, I am actually attempting at the onset to provide an informational/definitive/social and therefore protocol-oriented…stability, although hopefully it’s not in the least exclusion-oriented as well.  I will say that at the outset I basically equate Marxism and capitalism and for that matter at least most proposed religiously-oriented value systems.  The reason is that the core is a socially assigned right to llive.  The method of assignment appears to vary but can be nicely defined as nearly identical.  I wrote all of the notes over fifty years, believe me, although I haven’t retained them.  I suppose I should have, but at the time my audience was me and I didn’t need to read what I had written.

Whether I’m correct or not doesn’t concern me now.  I just feel a need to teach what I seem to have learned.  What’s done with it is unlikely to involve me.

April 26, 2015 at 7:52 pm Leave a comment

Investing and…EMOTIONAL VULNERABILITY

One of the things no one will warn you about if you start investing is that investing is a very emotional business, at least on the whole.  Essentially, the world is coming to an end each and every day (Armageddon), the new savior has just appeared (whether in person or as a company), the technology to save the world has just appeared and if you’ll just give $X why YOU WILL SAVE IT (and make yourself millions instantly), the technology to save the world is being misused and it will destroy the world [unfortunately entirely possible, as are the scenarios mentioned] and everyone is missing the point.  At the same time, the successful investors will tell you to forget the bullshit and and concentrate on material things.

1.  The stock market will crash.  It has never yet been successfully predicted by most of the stock market (on any stock market scenario in any country at any time we know of).  Of course, if it had been, it probably wouldn’t have been a crash.

2.  There are a number of absolutely indisputable causes for stock market crashes.  Unfortunately, many of them contradict each other, which means that some are inevitably correct.  Probably.  The true Murphy’s Law is this (and only this); “The universe is infinite, at least from the perspective of humans.  Humans aren’t and their plans aren’t.  There are an infinite number of things that can happen in any event line of any kind.  Any human plan is finite.  This means that utterly unforeseen things will occur and the people involved in them will have no idea of how to react” except to use the most famous tactic; blame it on the enemy.  If there isn’t an enemy, invent one.

3.  This is a nuclear age.  See (2) above.  Nuclear war will almost certainly occur on some scale.  The College has it at 3 minutes til midnight last I heard; I had it at 15 seconds but Putin backed off slightly and I’ll give you 45 seconds.  I am privy to information the College doesn’t have; I extrapolated very correctly beginning 45 years ago.

4.  The stock market is going to make you a millionaire!  See OICAX and BRK.B; funds do better.  The problem is that in the short term becoming a millionaire (even in years) you have more probability buying lottery tickets, playing cards and doing the gaming tables.  At least you’ll most likely have more fun.  The one word that I’ve never yet seen in an advertisement but know as essential is “patience”.  [I will say that IBD does at least indicate it and positively state you’ll have losses; so does Tison’s candlestick analysis at the start, although latterly he seems to emphasize some magical quality.  [Sorry, I don’t believe in that kind of magic.]

5.  The stock market is ONLY [stick in phrase, sentence, quality, whatever].  It isn’t.  It’s just as many things as there are people involved, and methods of success vary because for one thing the worth of stocks is lingually based, and part of a much more complicated sociopsychological system than anyone has cared or dared to try to study, partially because of the misstatements of behaviorism (humanism is equally offbase).

6.  In general, the WORLD IS COMING TO AN END.  No, the Vogons haven’t decided to make a highway through here yet.  And once again, it’s very unlikely that such an eventuality would be foreseen particularly since it would most likely be a collision between our planet as a gravity well and something we’ve hopelessly attracted (sort of a case of cosmic love, you see).

7.  And at the end and on a serious note…read a lot, study a lot, try to cut your losses as you see fit and with advice and you’ll probably profit some.  Perhaps you’ll profit a lot.  I have the majority of my investments in two rather large funds and do some speculating on the side, all of which is currently cut short except one company (I’ll venture into another one soon, maybe even today).  I did find out instantly that having my pride involved in my choices was the worst possible idea.

March 18, 2015 at 2:50 pm Leave a comment

MacIntosh vs. Windows…I mean, Obama and McCaine

First of all, I think whoever wins the election it will be a disaster.  The one thing the U.S. populace has shown over the years is an entire inability to adapt.  This has a lot to do with manipulated news media (“Yellow Journalism”–the name stemming from the short lifetime of the paper first used for papers like The National Enquirer–with us now and ever, with ever more faces), sure.  We’re also all sure it must be someone’s fault, just as long as it’s not our own.

I don’t buy Obama being born in Nigeria, and I didn’t buy stock from the Nigerian claiming to be his grandfather either.  McCaine isn’t a complete idiot and he is a Vietnam vet–and he tests out sane, which is better than I do (veteran of only that war).  Biden seems credible.  As far as Palin goes, I still can’t quite believe that she isn’t just a fraud–a joke, although that’s punishable by a heavy fine and possible imprisonment.

Both will make most decisions on the advice of officeholders.  The infrastructure holds the information.  And anger the infrastructure and you lose a lot of the control.  Give it up.  I mean, really.  One thing you can assume is that the first one who went to mud-slinging had the least to offer on his own in positive terms.  Unfortunately, I’m afraid some buck-toothed inbred will be unable to take it if Mr. Obama does make it to the presidency.  I’m also afraid of McCaine’s age, health and potential successor, because I wouldn’t want her running the neighborhood bar–personal opinion, mind.  I’m sure she’s very good at things.  Some things.  I just wouldn’t guess what, both from inability and fear of being labeled a sexist.  I would much rather see Paris Hilton as president, and that has absolutely nothing to do with anything but intelligence.

But each will bash the other.  The Republicans are blaming the Democrats, who are apparently in power (in the Oval Office, no less–the power behind the throne? the puppet master? Svengali?) for the financial mess, which was being predicted by anyone above retarded because of the loosening of controls on loans to non-existence on Greenspan’s instructions.  The Democrats, oddly enough, are saying a Republican was in office.  Odd idea, that.

And no matter who wins the election, it will be their fault and it should have been fixed yesterday.  Where would we be without edited news?   But I believe.  It’s the other guys’ fault.

–Glenn

October 25, 2008 at 4:34 am Leave a comment

Reassuring News About Our Economy

The Bush administration thinks this is a short term problem.  However, humans are continuing to expand population as predicted, although more slowly than most predicted.  I predict that as of next year we’ll need 3 times what we did this year…and three times that the year after.  What am I talking about? fuel/food.

–Glenn

July 16, 2008 at 7:48 am Leave a comment

About the Current Financial Situation

This wasn’t exactly unforeseen.  More than merely WP reporters were dubious about Greenspan’s policies and more importantly the actual intent behind them.   What’s actually described in the New York Times is what I recall, which is something that interpreted otherwise could have been taken as a deliberate buildup to the current situation. 

 

I’m not saying this has occurred or is even likely.  What I’ve spent the last five hours deliberating is simply this:  how does this affect the current balance of power, particularly with the three major new players on deck?  (This was defined thirty years ago as China, India and Pakistan.  A change is arguable.)

–Glenn

July 14, 2008 at 9:36 am Leave a comment